Fresh from its triumph in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party looks once again likely to come in first in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election, which takes place on the same day as an election in the capital Berlin.
The AfD's first-ever victory in a state election sent shock waves through Germany's consensus-oriented political system, underlining the possibility of a far-right victory in Europe's largest economy at the next federal election due in 2029. National opinion polls currently put the AfD at between 27-29 per cent against 18-20 per cent for the CDU.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the other parties' hopes of keeping the AfD from power rest largely on the popularity of the Social Democrats' (SPD) 52-year-old state premier Manuela Schwesig, who leads a coalition with the Left Party and whose personal approval ratings are over 60 per cent.
The latest poll for INSA polling institute put the AfD on 37 per cent, ahead of the SPD on 35 per cent, with the far-left Left Party on 10 per cent, the environmental Greens on five per cent and the far-left BSW under the threshold to enter parliament on three per cent. Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) were at just seven per cent.
If confirmed on Sunday, that could be enough for a coalition between the SPD, Left Party and Greens, although the Greens are sitting exactly on the five per cent threshold.
In just over a year in office, Merz has seen his own approval ratings fall as low as 14 per cent at national level and to single figures in the eastern states, as promised reforms have failed to show results, economic uncertainty has deepened and voter trust in the government has eroded.
For weeks, German media outlets have speculated over Merz's future, fed by leaks from within his own conservative camp, with expectations now widespread that another victory for the far-right could cost him his job, if not immediately, then over the coming months.
Schwesig, seen as a potential future SPD leader, has been a fierce critic of Merz, calling for more government action to curb soaring fuel prices and criticising his failure to connect with voters struggling with rising living costs.
"The chancellor doesn't really give people the impression that he sees and understands their problems," Schwesig told journalists in the Baltic port city of Rostock. "He simply ignores this problem."
Like other eastern regions, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a state with the one of lowest proportions of immigrants in Germany, suffers from a shortage of qualified workers and its health and aged care system depends heavily on foreign doctors, nurses and carers.
But the AfD's promises to restrict immigration and regain access to cheap Russian energy by restoring ties with Moscow have cut through with voters in the formerly communist states of eastern Germany, where many remain distanced from the western-dominated political establishments in the mainstream parties.
"There's a great deal of momentum building up again," Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD's lead candidate in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania told reporters last week.
"The chancellor is already completely out of his depth, and you feel at any moment that he might resign."
