A pair of polls on Tuesday have the National-led coalition on the brink of defeat as the Greens surge and upstarts Opportunity enter parliament.
The Greens are on their highest polling figures in their history - including 16 per cent in a TVNZ poll - bumping the left bloc marginally past the coalition.
A month out from polling day, Chris Luxon's centre-right party is on 28 per cent, according to TVNZ-Verian poll, and just 25.9 per cent support in a Radio NZ-Reid Research survey.
That figure is the party's worst result in any NZ-based poll this term and in this survey for six years.
"It is a dismal result. There is just no other way to put this," Radio NZ political editor Jo Moir said.
Labour leads National 31 to 26 per cent on the Radio NZ numbers but are tied 28-28, according to TVNZ.
National's coalition partners NZ First on 10.6 and ACT on nine per cent - not enough for a majority.
Ms Moir said the results spelled trouble for National, which has held office six times since 1949 and has never failed to win a second term.
"There's not a lot of time to turn the ship around at this point ... with a leader that is tracking backwards and in the negatives," she said.
National campaign chair Simeon Brown told Radio NZ the poll showed "the election is going to be very close, and that there's a lot of work to do".
On the numbers of both polls, both the coalition and the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Maori Party are short a majority.
The left bloc is an assumed winner owing to Opportunity, which is now consistently - but just - polling ahead of the five per cent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Leader Qiulae Wong says she is open to negotiating with either side of politics, but Mr Luxon has ruled out working with them, describing them as radical and left-wing.
That is shaping as an election-defining call for Mr Luxon, who has battled poor polling since winning election in 2023.
He and Labour leader Chris Hipkins will contest the first leaders debate of the campaign on Tuesday night, hosted by TVNZ.
Concerningly for National, the RNZ poll also recorded worsening results on two key metrics: Mr Luxon's personal favourability and how many Kiwis see the country on the right or wrong direction.
The prime minister has a net favourability of -24, with more than half -53 per cent - viewing him as performing poorly, with with the same number describing NZ as on the wrong track.
National has flirted with dumping Mr Luxon has leaders throughout the term, including a vote of no confidence in August.
At that crunch partyroom meeting, its MPs opted against changing leaders, with Mr Luxon sacking defence minister Chris Penk for plotting a coup.
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