Under a forecast released by the Northern Victoria Resource Manager, some of the biggest irrigation districts could start the next season with less than 50 per cent allocations.
The outlook is similar to the one released in early April.
Under average inflow conditions, the Murray system would start in August with about 40 per cent of high reliability water shares and the Goulburn system with about 38 per cent.
For the Campaspe system, under average conditions the forecast would be for about 75 per cent.
Northern Victoria Resource Manager Mark Bailey said rainfall over the northern Victoria catchment areas in recent weeks had been welcome, but it had not produced substantial flows into the storages.
“Larger flows have historically come during the winter and spring months.
“With the volumes available for allocation, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems are likely to be low unless there is more rainfall and flows into the storages.
“The Broken and Bullarook systems are likely to start at zero per cent of high reliability water shares.”
Dr Bailey said the outlooks relied on estimates of water use, system operating requirements and the amount of allocation carried over into the new water year.
“Revisions to the estimates used to prepare the outlooks will influence the differences between each update,” Dr Bailey said.
The risk of spill in the Murray system is expected to be about 35 per cent at the start of July 2026.
In the Goulburn system, the risk is currently close to 10 per cent needed to make a low risk of spill declaration.
The risk of spill is 25 per cent in the Campaspe system.
“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining weeks of 2025-26,” Dr Bailey said.
Forecast tables for the seasonal determinations are available at www.nvrm.net.au/outlooks
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