Opportunity, the teal-inspired centrist force, remains in the kingmaker role based on the poll released on Tuesday, but only by the skin of its teeth.
The results reinforced the November 7 election as the closest and most complex in memory, with voters increasingly likely to back minor parties.
The centre-right National party, which enjoyed a four-point bump in last week's poll, fell three points to 29 per cent.
That's bad news for National after a week with law-and-order issues in the headlines that failed to produce a poll bump.
The right grouping remains ahead of the Labour-led left bloc, courtesy of coalition partners ACT, up one to 12, and NZ First, up two to 10.
Labour stayed steady on 27, the Greens dropped one to be on 15, with the Maori Party crashing to just 0.1 per cent.
The result is the right bloc ahead of the left, but both are short of a parliamentary majority should Opportunity cross the five per cent threshold to guarantee parliamentary representation.
Opportunity was polling at eight per cent in September, but registered six in the TVNZ poll, and is lower in other surveys.
Mr Luxon is arguing for another three years to bed down reforms and realise long-promised economic growth that is yet to materialise.
"The only poll that matters is November 7th, and the message is very simple to New Zealanders: don't put it at risk," he told TVNZ.
Mr Luxon did receive a bump in personal support, backed as preferred prime minister by 24 per cent, up four, ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 18 per cent, up one.
National was expected to fare well in this poll given a week of headlines around Labour, Greens and Maori Party MPs and candidates campaigning for votes among gang members, including some at the Mongrel Mob's headquarters.
Mr Luxon campaigned successfully in 2023, when law and order was a top-level issue, on targeting gangs.
The issue peaked on Friday when Mr Hipkins forced the resignation of one of his candidates for her involvement.
If Labour was bracing itself for a whack from voters for the episode, they will be relieved it did not materialise.
"This is going to be a very close election ... it's all going to come down to turnout," Mr Hipkins told TVNZ, claiming a "groundswell of support" on the ground.
While turnout is an issue, the biggest question remains whether Opportunity make it into parliament.
If they fall short of five per cent, the coalition looks set to be returned.
If they pass the threshold, it's an open question, with Qiulae Wong's party open-minded to which side of politics it supports.
That will depend on policy concessions her party can extract, with a look at the party's platform suggesting it is much likely to side with the left.
Ms Wong dismissed her party's poll dip, which shows them close to the precipice.
"The big question is how many of our amazing MPs we'll be able to have representing Opportunity in parliament," she told TVNZ.
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