Next season looks good for irrigators

“Allocations to low-reliability water shares are made only after securing resources for high-reliability water shares in the following water year,” Dr Bailey said.

“The reserves ensure water is available for allocation at the start of 2024-25.

“Based on estimated use across the rest of this water year, opening seasonal determinations in the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems are likely to be about 60 per cent HRWS or better.

“The Campaspe system has enough resource available to allocate 100 per cent HRWS under all conditions on the first 2024-25 announcement on July 1 this year.

“Catchment conditions and the volume of carried over allocation will influence early season availability in the Broken and Bullarook systems, which have smaller storages and fewer reserves.”

Dr Bailey said average inflow conditions should allow the Murray, Goulburn, Loddon and Bullarook systems to reach seasonal determinations of 100 per cent HRWS by mid-August 2024.

“The same conditions would provide 100 per cent HRWS in the Broken system by mid-October,” he said.

“The Murray and Goulburn systems need average or better inflow conditions for LRWS seasonal determinations. LRWS allocations in the Campaspe system are likely early in the season under average inflow conditions.

“Early season use that reduces the amount of water committed, plus continued inflows into the storages, will increase the chances of allocations to LRWS during 2024-25.

“Any scenarios in which LRWS is allocated in the Murray and Goulburn systems will see deductions from spillable water accounts.

“The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems in 2024-25 will depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months to meet demands.

“The risk of spill in each system is expected to be at least 70 per cent at the start of July 2024.

“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2023-24,” Dr Bailey said.