Rabobank says the impact has been most visible in Australia, after China’s safeguard quota for Australian beef imports was reached in mid-June.
This saw Australian beef exports to China fall 71 per cent month-over-month from May to June, with July volumes remaining similarly low, the bank’s RaboResearch division said in its Q3 Global Beef Quarterly report.
Much of this Australian product has been redirected to alternative destinations with Japan, South Korea, the United States and the Middle East all recording significant increases in Australian beef imports through June and July.
Report lead author, Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said Brazil is also expected to hit its Chinese beef import quota limits in the coming month, with anticipation of reduced access to China already pressuring Brazilian cattle prices lower.
Mr Gidley-Baird said as Australian beef shipments to China declined following the triggering of the quota, Chinese buyers have turned to other suppliers.
“Chinese imports from New Zealand rose 66 per cent year-over-year for the first six months of 2026, while volumes from Canada and Bolivia increased 104 per cent and 62 per cent respectively year-over-year for the same period,” he said.
A proposed EU suspension of Brazilian beef (and other meat) imports due to concerns Brazil cannot demonstrate compliance with EU antimicrobial use in September could trigger another reshuffling of global trade.
“If this suspension is implemented, roughly 10,000 metric tonnes per month of Brazilian beef would need to find alternative markets, increasing competitive pressure across key importing regions,” he said.
The report notes global prices had pulled back modestly in July from the record levels reached earlier in the year. Prices in Australia, Canada and the US declined between two and six per cent on June levels.
“Improved cattle availability, growing consumer resistance to higher beef prices and trade disruptions have all contributed to weaker market sentiment,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
And further price consolidation is possible over the next several months, as markets adjust to changing supply and demand dynamics, he said.
The report says RaboResearch’s forecast for lower global beef production remains firmly intact.
“While Q2 data is not yet complete, production is expected to decline across key markets, including Europe, the US, Brazil and China,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The production downturn is expected to continue over the next 12 months, he said, with Brazil projected to post the largest volume decline.
“Overall, global beef production is forecast to fall two per cent year-over-year in the calendar year to December 2026, further tightening supplies and supporting market fundamentals,” he said.
Australian beef production volumes, though, continue at a strong pace, the report says. “Australia’s national weekly slaughter volumes continue to track around 150,000 to 160,000 head per week, which is in line with the first half of this year,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“And year-to-date total weekly slaughter volumes are up six per cent on the same time last year.
“RaboResearch believes these ongoing elevated Australian slaughter and sale numbers are a result of a larger cattle inventory and productive cattle herd.
Cattle saleyard numbers continue to be some of the highest levels in the past 10 years, 33 per cent higher than the five-year average.”
For Australia, cattle prices remain strong, but eased in late July following a rain-fuelled rise through May and June, the report said.
“Although El Niño has been declared, many cattle-producing areas received favourable rainfall through May and June with further falls in August.
“This saw cattle prices rise in June and July to the highest point for the year as producers took advantage of the better prospects for feed production,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“Towards the end of July, though, prices started declining as the combination of the China quota and ongoing caution around seasonal conditions took the heat out of the market.”
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