La Niña weakening into winter

It’s going to be a warmer and wetter than average winter, even as La Niña weakens. Photo by Megan Fisher

La Niña is slowly weakening, but above average winter rainfall is expected for most of central and eastern Australia in the months ahead, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's Winter 2022 Climate Outlook.

Parts of south-western Australia and south-western Tasmania are likely to have below average rainfall this winter.

The outlook predicts the unusually wet conditions for inland parts of NSW, South Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory are likely to be in the top 20 per cent of wettest winters.

With northern Australia's dry season starting in May, it takes only a small amount of extra rain to be above average at this time of year.

With already saturated catchments in south-eastern Australia, the winter rain extends the flood risk for these regions.

The floodwater in low-lying areas in Queensland and NSW will slowly move inland towards South Australia over coming months.

There is an above 80 per cent chance of unusually high winter temperatures in coastal, south-western and northern parts of Western Australia, coastal northern areas of the Northern Territory and Queensland, south-eastern NSW, southern and eastern Victoria, and all of Tasmania.

A large section of central Australia has an increased chance of unusually low winter daytime temperatures, in the coolest 20 per cent of past winters.

This extends from Western Australia's eastern area through central Australia into the eastern states.

Warmer than average nights are likely almost everywhere — with at least an 80 per cent chance of higher minimum temperatures for most of Australia.

The winter outlooks reflect several climate influences, including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a slowly declining La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and warmer than average waters around northern Australia.

Bureau outlooks are updated regularly and can be explored by the fortnight, month or season on the website.

The Winter 2022 Climate Outlook can be found at: