At long last a feasibility study into the reopening of the defunct Tocumwal-Narrandera railway line has been made public.
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Commissioned by The Nationals as a sweetener during 2017’s Cootamundra by-election — which they won — the $500,000 report was mired in secrecy after the state government deemed its contents were ‘‘commercial-in-confidence’’.
Initially a ten-page executive summary — as definitive as it was brief — was released, concluding that:
‘‘Based on the analysis undertaken, the proposed reinstatement of the Narrandera to Tocumwal line would not provide economic benefits that outweigh the initial upfront construction cost and ongoing operational cost.’’
However, the evidence used to reinforce said claims were not released to the public; which meant independent analysts and industry experts, had been unable to corroborate the government's findings.
Until now.
Following a two year battle in NSW’s senate the report has been released in its entirety.
‘‘It was a hollow election promise, in the end they were never even interested in this report, or it’s findings,’’ said Member for Murray Helen Dalton, who’s party — The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers — lobbied for the document to be made public.
‘‘It’s lightweight, and it’s contents have been questioned by experts, but it still contains useful information that was funded with $500,000 of taxpayer money,’’ she said.
The Tocumwal—Narrandera railway has sat dormant for 36 years, after it was decommissioned in 1985.
For over a century the rail had serviced the townships of Tocumwal, Jerilderie and Berrigan, amongst others.
Though it’s tracks have rusted, and it’s bridges long worne; industry professionals maintain that a second life is possible for the once-critical infrastructure.
James Bushell, a PhD candidate at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies - in addition to consulting on a number of similar regional rail projects - wrote the application for the Country Rail Grant that initiated the feasibility study in the first place.
‘‘The benefits of this project is that most of the work has been done, and some of the old components can even be reused,’’ he said.
The acquisition of land, and subsequent earthworks necessitated by new rail infrastructure have been a significant issue for the Federal Government’s infamous Inland Rail project.
In light of this significant advantage; why did the state-commissioned feasibility report conclude that reinstating the Narrandera — Tocumwal line would be ‘economically unviable’?
The answer, as always, is politics.
‘‘This project would provide benefits to the Western and Southern Riverina,’’ said Mr Bushell.
‘‘But not to Sydney.’’
Because the majority of freight in the Riverina region is destined for the Port of Melbourne, Victoria is set to benefit more from the project than Sydney.
said Mr Bushell.‘‘The politicians in Sydney don’t want to go through with this because there are benefits that go to Victoria."
‘‘As such this project is not high up on their priority list.’’
Southern Riverina News understands that state-funded infrastructure projects in border regions are valued at up to thirty per cent less than similar inner-state projects, to adjust for the diversion of profits to other states.
The lack of interest from Sydney could also explain the report's use of ‘conservative estimates’ when predicting freight volumes.
‘‘Reports like this can be influenced by assumptions,’’ said Mr Bushell, who criticised its lack of growth calculations and the assumed discount rate of seven per cent.
‘‘Normally when doing a study like this, you’d assume a baseline demand volume and then perform a sensitivity analysis of that volume”.
‘‘For example, if you estimated the line would attract one million tonnes of freight, you’d also run a model with a projected 1.2 million tonnes — just to see what that would look like.’’
No such model was included in the report.
‘‘The conservative estimates were also reflective of the variability of water,’’ said Mr Bushell.
Sunrice, one of the businesses approached by contractors, provided data on it’s current shipment volumes.
However, as these volumes varied dramatically depending on season, researchers elected to use data from a low shipment year, as opposed to a high shipment year — at a difference of at least 50 per cent.
But the controversial report is far from a nail in the coffin for the Tocumwal - Narrandera railway, according to Mr Bushell.
“This is a good first step, even if it’s dressed down, more information is always better than less,” he said.
“What it needs is strong interest from the Victorian government, if that happens via lobbying or otherwise, and the Victorian’s decide to put up a stake in the project, then there’s a very real possibility NSW will come to the table.”