Member for Farrer Sussan Ley was replaced as Liberal Party leader by Angus Taylor, after the party’s worst polling in history.
She subsequently announced she would quit politics, forcing a by-election in our electorate.
Ms Ley is first expected to undertake a farewell tour of Farrer.
When the by-election is announced it will become the hottest political issue on a national scale.
For starters, it will give the Nationals an opportunity to contest the seat for the first time in 25 years, after Farrer was surprisingly taken from them by Ms Ley with her narrow win in 2001 following the retirement of popular former Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer.
The Nationals are expected to fight hard to get back what was considered a traditional seat.
They have been on the hunt for a possible candidate since before Christmas, anticipating a Liberal leadership change and the potential of Ms Ley quitting politics.
However, the Nationals will have to turn around their fortunes after running poor local campaigns for state elections in recent years, which opened the door for Independent Helen Dalton to take the seat of Murray in 2019.
She retained it comfortably at the last state election in 2023, almost doubling the number of votes received by her nearest rival, Nationals’ candidate, former Edward River Mayor Peta Betts.
Mrs Dalton has announced she is considering a tilt at Farrer as an Independent. On Friday she said she would “listen to what the people of Farrer have to say” and“I understand that the people of my region want their voices to be heard and whatever I decide to do, I will be doing it to make sure their voices are a lot louder”.
Reports indicate she had talks with One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and star recruit Barnaby Joyce at the weekend as they try to get her as their candidate.
Michelle Milthorpe, who polled extremely well at last year’s federal election when she contested Farrer against Sussan Ley, has already announced her intention to stand in the by-election.
Mrs Milthorpe out-polled Ms Ley in Albury, but failed to get that level of traction in rural areas like Deniliquin, largely due to her association with the teals, after receiving funding support from their backer, Simon Holmes a Court.
This was in the wake of teals supporting the government’s efforts to remove more water from productive use under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. While Mrs Milthorpe has continued to campaign on “fair and equitable water management” and “no more water buybacks”, to this point her message has not cut through to rural voters.
The Liberal Party will be trying to get a high profile candidate for the by-election, which will be seen as a test for new leader Angus Taylor. They will be desperate to retain the seat.
The Liberal Party’s state Member for Albury, Justin Clancy, is being encouraged to move into federal politics, which he has said he would “consider carefully”. He received nearly 53 per cent of first preference votes to record a resounding win in the 2023 state election.
And then there is One Nation.
The party has surged in national opinion polls and wants to show it can turn this into votes on a ballot paper.
As well as discussions with Mrs Dalton, it has called for expressions of interest from branch members interested in pre-selection and advised “local branch members will come together to select their preferred candidate for Farrer” and “the process will move swiftly”.
Its candidate last year was Emma Hicks, who only received 6.6 per cent of primary votes.
The Labor Party may not field a candidate, as it could not win the seat and a drop in its vote would be seen in a negative light.
The Greens traditionally contest Farrer, but received less than five per cent of the vote in 2025 and would not be expected to have any impact.
Betting markets have already opened on the by-election, with an early Sportsbet market tipping a win for the Nationals. It had Nationals a $2 favourite, followed by Liberals $3.75, Independent $4 and One Nation $4.50.
