At least three nations are willing and capable of attempting an assassination in Australia, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation director-general Mike Burgess revealed at the 2025 Lowy Lecture on Tuesday night.
"There is a realistic possibility a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia," he said.
"This threat is real."
The spy chief stressed he was referring to assassination "attempts" and said ASIO was working around the clock against these threats.
Though he did not name those nations, Mr Burgess pointed to ways regimes have already taken aim at Australia.
Iran hid its involvement in the 2024 firebombings at Melbourne's Addas Synagogue and Sydney's Lewis Continental Kitchen by using a "complex web of cut-outs" that may not have even known they were receiving instructions from the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps.
Closer to Australia, ASIO suspects a strain of extremist propaganda that claims to be from a transnational terrorist group was actually created by a hostile nation.
Even Russia, which has always been a major espionage threat, appears to have upped the ante as the war with Ukraine makes intelligence gathering more urgent.
ASIO uncovered links between pro-Russia influencers in Australia and an offshore media organisation that "almost certainly" receives orders from Russian intelligence.
Another foreign intelligence service, which has claimed it does not spy on Australia, tried to recruit Australians to gather information on the economy, critical minerals and the country's nuclear submarine agreement with the US and UK.
It even set up a face-to-face meeting with an Australian in a third country before ASIO intervened.
"Australia has never faced so many different threats, at scale, at once," Mr Burgess said.
These foreign actors are eroding Australia's social cohesion from afar as international conflicts, including Israel's military offensive in Gaza, reshape the country's security environment.
While the conflict in the Middle East did not directly inspire terrorism in Australia, it has elevated tensions, increased the likelihood of politically motivated violence and fuelled protest.
"Even if the ceasefire holds, we expect ongoing tests for our social cohesion," Mr Burgess said.
The war in Gaza led to an increase in anarchist extremism, but nationalist and racist violent actors continue to make up the majority of ASIO's investigations into ideologically motivated extremism.
In August, for example, the nation's largest neo-Nazi group used the March for Australia rallies in August to raise their profile by exploiting organisers' complaints about immigration and the cost of living.
While the National Socialist Network may not engage in terrorism, Mr Burgess remains worried its hateful rhetoric and propaganda could give rise to violence.
But perhaps one of the biggest challenges for the spy agency is the internet, which aggravates every factor that threatens social cohesion.
Mr Burgess called it an "echo chamber for disaffection, misinformation and reinforcement" and warned the proliferation of AI could take online radicalisation to new levels.
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