Unless he navigates a way out of the hole he's dug for himself, a shock second-round US Open loss - his earliest exit in five years - has left de Minaur facing a rankings freefall in coming months.
After a stellar 2025 campaign, Australia's world No.7 will be defending semi-final rankings points in Beijing and Vienna and quarter-final points at the season's remaining two Masters 1000 events in Shanghai and Paris.
From a career-high No.5 in July, de Minaur is suddenly in danger of dropping out of the world's top 10 by the end of the Open, though he is certain to be ranked above an equally faltering Novak Djokovic for the first time.
The seven-times grand slam quarter-finalist reached the last four at last year's elite eight-man Tour Finals in Turin.
But, performing as a self-confessed shadow of his brilliant self since Wimbledon, de Minaur says qualifying for the season-ending championship is most unlikely.
"With results like this, I'm not making it easy on myself. Let's just say that," the 27-year-old said after his lacklustre 6-4 7-5 6-2 loss to world No.70 Botic van de Zandschulp at Flushing Meadows.
"So really, look, if I make it, I'm going to have to have some good results. It's as simple as that because I'll need to go deep in one of the big tournaments because this year I probably haven't had the consistency that I've had in previous years.
"It doesn't mean it's not doable or not possible. If I can get myself back to playing the right way and playing the way I want to, then I'll have better chances than if I continue the way I am."
The greatest concern for de Minaur and his team will likely be his seeming lack of competitive edge.
Notoriously intense and hard on himself, de Minaur has clearly mellowed since marrying British star Katie Boulter on Wimbledon finals day in Tuscany.
After his fourth-round loss at the All England Club, a devastated de Minaur declared he was "broken inside" after blowing another golden grand slam opportunity.
But, most unusually, he was nonchalant about his premature departure from the New York major.
"No, I'm good," de Minaur said.
"Obviously would have loved to do better, as any competitor would, but it's what happens in this sort of sport. Everyone loses matches."
De Minaur is either presenting a brave front, still on a honeymoon or lost his mojo somewhere between his wedding and return to work during the American hardcourt swing.
But he does hope to get it back during Australia's Davis Cup battle against Poland in Brisbane on September 19-20 before joining Team World against Team USA at the Laver Cup the following week in London.
"Look, the tennis season goes on and that's how it goes. You move on, you move forward and you're looking for the next opportunity to get back on track and that's what it is," he said.
"I've got a couple team events coming up, which I'm excited for, and I'm hoping that I can use both of those events to get back on track in the way I'm playing and feeling and hopefully still give myself a good chance and a good shot for the end of the year."
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