Just who has the most to lose from the result of the weekend’s split round contest is questionable, but one thing is for certain — Seymour will be closely monitoring the result of the match.
Three matches were played on Saturday in part one of the split Goulburn Valley football round, top-of-the-ladder Echuca was a 62-point winner against Euroa, Shepparton had a similar winning margin against co-tennant United and — in the upset of the round — Kyabram ended the three-week winning run of Mooroopna.
A Rochester win against Mansfield, and likely Seymour win against Shepparton Swans, would mean the Tigers and the Lions remain deadlocked on seven wins. Seymour holds sixth spot at the moment by 18 per cent, in front of the seventh-ranked Tigers.
In the final five weeks Rochester has the most attractive draw — confronting the bottom five teams.
Seymour must overcome Kyabram, Mooroopna and Euroa between rounds 14-16 before lowly rated opponents to end its home-and-away season.
The Tigers will likely have key defenders Hamish Hooppell and Jacob Atley back in the team, along with key mid-fielder Shaun Atley.
In spite of missing the past six weeks Atley is still ranked second on the average disposal list (32) from his five matches.
With Joe Atley, who is playing with Essendon in the VFL, available for the last two home-and-away games, along with the likely late-season availability of Hugh Hamilton, Rochester is primed for a strong finish.
Hamilton is playing with the Bendigo Pioneers, but the NAB league team has byes corresponding with GVL rounds 15 and 18.
They will also have the services of hard-tackling Grant Fuller, an important addition against the highly physical Mansfield combination.
With 13 of the round’s matches nearing completion, Echuca is untouchable with a two-game margin on top of the ladder.
The club’s only hiccup came in round one, against Rochester, when despite winning the contest by 50-plus points on the scoreboard had the four premiership points taken from it due to an administrative error.
Euroa, which faces three of the bottom teams in the final five weeks of home-and-away competition, is now in a battle with Kyabram, Mansfield and Mooroopna for the double chance.
Sitting second with 10 wins, Euroa is only a game clear of Kyabram (18 per cent behind it in third), Mansfield and Mooroopna.
A Mansfield win against the Tigers this weekend, depending on the scoreline, would mean only percentage separates the pair in the run to the wire.
Mansfield can determine its own destiny, facing Kyabram and Mooroopna, in the final five weeks.
Mansfield is the most efficient team in the Goulburn Valley by foot and does not over possess the ball.
The Eagles kick the ball at 66 per cent efficiency and have the fifth most kicks, on average, in the competition.
They are, however, eighth when it comes to hand ball — indicating a preference to put boot to ball. Only six possessions, on average, separates Rochester and Mansfield in total disposals — the teams ranked sixth and eighth respectively.
Mansfield’s physicality could be a concern for the Tigers, who rank in the bottom half for one per centers, tackles and spoils.
Mansfield is the second-highest tackling team in the league, averaging 10 more than the Tigers, while the Eagles are second for smothers, tap ons, shepherds and other one per centers.
Rochester is second from the bottom in this statistic, as they are for spoils — having missed several key defenders for much of the 2022 season.
There is a second split round on August 6 and 13, with the Tigers drawn to play the opening week of that Round-16 draw.
The final home and away match is August 27 before a September 3-4 start to the finals.
